Wednesday, 06 October 2010 03:52
Peninsula News Paper
Dsappointment hit the Director of Defense Sales within the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), as his expectations were not met this year in US arms’ sales to reach the $50bn target. Rather, they are likely to come closer to a level slightly less than sales for the fiscal year (FY) in 2009 of about $37.8bn. From his disappointment to our disappointments in this part of the world, as Arabian Business cites the International Advisory Forecast Foundation as noting that Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) governments are expected to increase defense and armaments spending by 20 percent by the end of 2010, and reach $83bn by 2015 compared to $68.3bn this year. The UK’s Financial Times points out that GCC states asked the United States to provide weapons over the next four years worth $125bn.
The magazine states that international arms suppliers prioritize GCC markets and that US giants such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon in addition to British and French companies, which are considered as minor in the GCC markets. Information issued by the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm indicates that 33 percent of the arms shipments to the region head to the UAE. The study adds that countries depending heavily on oil and gas prices such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait enjoy high liquidity and can easily purchase whatever they need. Even countries that do not have much wealth resulting from oil and gas exports such as Bahrain and Oman still have plenty of cash to help them buy what they need.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London notes that the Middle East, which was described as the most volatile region in the world, spends large amounts on arms, and is likely to remain the largest arms buyer in the coming years. Meanwhile, the US is the largest arms exporter in the world, followed by Britain and Russia. The Institute reports that expenditure on armaments has negative effects on the development process, where the relationship between arms and development is a positive relationship; the higher the defense expenditures of a country, the higher the negative impact on development. During the last thirty years, governments of developed and developing countries spent vast resources on arms, which could have gone to meet the basic needs of the citizens of those countries, and toward the elimination of poverty.
A special study published by the website “Al-Jazeerah” by Abdul Jalil Al-Marhoun addresses the amount of current spending on defense programs arms in the GCC, the percentage of arms in total expenditure, per capita annual defense spending, and arms sales that are long awaited in this sensitive region of the world. The study reports that the military expenditures of the world combined in 2009 amounted to a total of $1,531 billion, which represented 2.7% of global gross national product (GNP). The share of each person in the world of these expenditures equates to $224. As for the level of per capita annual military spending, in 2008 some GCC countries were among the highest 15 countries in the world. Oman was ranked third in the world after Israel and the US respectively with $1,650 per capita. Kuwait was ranked fifth in the world after Singapore with $1,600 per capita. Then, Saudi Arabia was sixth in the world with $1,500 per capita.
At the level of future prospects, the military procurement bill of GCC countries is estimated at about $300 billion over the next five years including $100 billion dollars for complimentary defense technologies for two GCC countries (according to estimates by the Financial Times). Also, maritime defense spending alone are expected to reach about $17.5 billion by 2020 as reported by Jane’s Information Group.
Among the major projects currently in motion, the study mentioned two deals for French Rafale fighter jets, one for the UAE and the other for Kuwait. In 2009, France announced that it is close to reaching an agreement with the UAE to sell 60 Rafale fighter jets worth between four and five billion euros. In the same context, according to French media reports, Paris is seeking to market an anti-missile defense system to GCC states, perhaps its inception will be in Kuwait. If these reports are accurate, it will mean a major shift in France’s position toward the GCC not only in the arms market but in the approach to GCC security in general. Additionally, the wounded, damaged Iraq seeks to purchase thirty-six F-161 aircrafts, each one worth about $100 million, with leadership training and maintenance facilities. Baghdad will also buy six transport planes from the company Lockheed Martin and related equipment with a total value of up to $1.5 billion. For its part, the Iraqi navy has plans to purchase four Italian-manufactured patrol vessels weighing 450 tonnes.
Is the defense and arms race going to protect the GCC region and provide its people with security and stability? Isn’t it enough that the GCC region has several complex security agreements in place, currently hosts military bases on its soil, and funds legendary defense contracts by draining the wealth, budgets, and strategic reserves of future generations? When and in which battle or field of war will the region need to make use of these weapons? And do the purchasing agreements allow for the weapons to be used in time of need? Take a lesson from Japan, which, by the end of the reign of Emperor Meiji, turned into the sole centralized, strong, military and imperialist state in south and east Asia. Its army committed the deadliest massacres against the peoples of China, Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines amongst others. The Americans shook the site of Pearl Harbor in 1941 that was attacked with nuclear bombs and forced into surrender and submission. Dr. Masoud Zahir summarizes Japan’s first modernization by stating that, “Japan, in the era of Meiji and his successors, succeeded in creating a strong imperialist state for a period exceeding half of a century” but the success of modernizing the military was at the expense of the community, leading to the destruction of the pillars of Japanese society in order to achieve expansion projects at the expense of neighboring Asian countries, and to realize imperialist dreams of major Japanese monopolies.
However, the story does not end there, rather, it inaugurates a realistic battle for the future. After Japan’s bitter, severe, and painful experiences in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it knew that the way to achieve power is through investing in human’s education, development, and training in a peaceful environment - not an ideology of entering conflicts, wars, and battles. Article IX was adopted in the Japanese constitution to refrain from using weapons of a non-defense nature, not to produce any weapons for sale, and not to participate in military forces outside the framework of international cooperation under the auspices of the United Nations. Dr. Zahir indicates that the failure of Japan, forced or voluntary, in re-arming itself has had very positive effects in the rapid growth of its economy without overwhelming state budgets on annual useless military expenditures in the field of armaments. In fact, Japanese politicians continued to hold on to the motto: a “pacifist constitution for the demilitarized state” throughout 1945 – 1953, and did not pass but the most minor amounts of rearmament funds within the annual budgets of 1952-1955.
Will Arab and Islamic countries benefit from the Japanese experience endured over half a century without arms and military armament? Will they learn from the experience of state-building through the adoption of democratic choice, economic openness, and investment in human capital? Generally speaking, there are no indications of affirmative responses to those questions but perhaps there is still a chance.
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