The peninsula Qatar
Wednesday, 04 January 2012 04:36
There is a sense of seriousness of the regional situations and risks expansion, and the extension and spread of revolutions in the Arab States and its implications and effects on the Gulf State. But the difference does not lie in the titles and labels that highlights the necessity for change, but in the real desire of each country in adopting and implementing the change particularly at the top level in power, governance, succession, fateful decision-making and the development of democratic experiment by giving powers to the elected legislative councils, and way to the traditional, tribal and sectarian societies of the Gulf to transform to civil institutional societies.
(1) Will we see in 2012 the process of the GCC states witnessing a turning point and shifting from a policy based on cooperation to be unified into one entity, to face the ‘challenges’ after nearly 30 years of foundation of the Council, established in May 25, 1981?
It is mentioned in the preamble of the council that it is ‘a cooperative framework formed of six countries that aims to achieve their coordination, integration and interdependence in all fields to achieve unity’, as stipulated in the Statute of the Council in article IV).
Talk about the unity has moved from debate and dialogue in GCC forums, newspapers and mass media to the department of political decision-making, but talk about integration in the framework of federalism as exaggerated by some people remains elusive. Perhaps the best formula lies in the integration under the formula of confederation, the thing that would be the biggest challenge for all countries and their ambitions at the internal, regional or international level and to the extent of seriousness and genuine desire to implement the trends and to acknowledge the changes and to engage in political, economic and social reforms coupled with give up the sovereign powers in areas of defence, economy, oil and foreign policies.
Just to remind that confederation is established as a result of a treaty concluded between the countries of full sovereignty to agree on the organization of their economic, cultural and military ties with each other. Hence federal relation will arise under which each state reserves its sovereignty, independence, rulers , government, political system and preserves the nationality of its citizens, and has the right to withdraw from the union. In case of involving in international dispute with one of the countries the Confederation union will end either with the secession of the Member States or with the dissolution of the union or with increase of their cohesion and interdependence and their entry into the federation instead of confederation.
Generally, the idea sounds nice, but its needs a great responsibility, commitment, respect and parity between the states to achieve it regardless of size difference either big or small. these factors did not entrench deeply in the structure of the Gulf political mentality. The proof is that if a slight difference arises on the issues of borders and sovereignty, political and media battles will break out between interlocking parties in the region and everyone backs his point of view against the other, and perhaps the issue of a single GCC currency is the best proof. The last attempt of unity to achieve was under the formula “the 9th Union “ that would have included nine Gulf emirates: Bahrain, Qatar in addition to the seven emirates, but the project failed as a result of conflict over the powers and policies.
(2) The guarantee for the success of formulas of integration and the establishment of unions lies in the popular participation and belief in the importance of the contract, which is enacted through constitutional institutions and put to a referendum to confer its legitimacy, which is largely absent in the process of the Gulf States at internal and external level. There are countries that do not believe in any constitution, the others have a frozen, amended whenever necessary, and the others have a constitution that was adorned with bright texts, but is not implemented and activated, and is not referred to. There are constitutional articles but all laws contrary to what was mentioned in them totally, even Kuwait ,the pioneer state in formulating social contract witnesses a conflict today about changing the constitution, although it includes a provision allowing it to be modified after five years of its release, but after more than forty five years there are no modifications, due to fears and suspicions of the amendment and change risks!! The thing that caught my attention in the statement of the Cooperation Council is the call to “accelerate the process of development and comprehensive reform in the Gulf States, in order to achieve greater participation of all citizens, men and women, and open prospects of the spacious future with maintaining security, stability and cohesion of the national fabric and social well-being,”. It is the most important call that did not get its right in presentation, deliberation and debate. There are at least three Gulf states suffering from political, economic and social conflicts, interactions and congestion that led to flow of people in the streets and change of the government and its president, call for and parliamentary elections in Kuwait. There were some government figures that have been associated with corruption were isolated, talk about expansion of Shura Council powers in the Sultanate of Oman, and there is explosion of rage in Bahrain streets, which is still alive even after the declaration of the report of Bassiouni fact-finding committee, in addition to the rest of the Gulf States and the talk of promised political reforms in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
(3) In the external challenge field, Iran’s influence in the Gulf, Iraq and Syria constitutes the most important challenges, and the Gulf Council does not have a lot of options to face this worsening influence. Refer to the means of calming and bridging the gaps did not lead to good results on the long term, and there are real threats to hit Iranian targets, especially after the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency and accusing of Tehran of using a peaceful nuclear program as a cover to produce nuclear weapons was released. Interestingly, soon after the meeting of the GCC ended and after its call to Iran to stop stirring up sedition, the Israeli newspaper «Maariv» stated that Israel requested some Gulf States to increase oil production to avoid the prices hike in the event of an attack launched by Iran!!
Colleague Abdullah bin Bejad refers to the three risks surrounding the Gulf countries: the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and handing it over as a plate of gold to Iran and its Iraqi allies which will turn it into a base to slamming Gulf states and conducting dirty acts against them to compensate the disorder Syria and strong possibilities of the regime fall.
The second risk is the possibility of the appearance of an anti-Gulf fundamentalist axis in the protesting Arab countries, it is a possibility - with the exception of Qatar, of course, but still for a while. The history and address of the fundamentalist groups which have always been hostile to the Gulf as general trend, did not changed, although some have tried to shed some powders on it to deflect the image. The third risk is that the Gulf is surrounded by failed countries or others threatened not to succeed to establish political, economic, and social stability. This constitutes a direct a direct threat to the GCC countries’ development, progress, political social stability, national security and a significant burden on their economies.
(4) The organization of the Gulf Cooperation Council succeeded to continue while the other Arab organizations -such as the Arab Cooperation Council and before the Baghdad Alliance and the Hashemite Union and the Maghreb Union- disappeared from the scene. The GCC today is required to do more especially in the internal opening, political reforms and activating popular participations, because the days of celebration and courtesies have gone, and the days of big challenges amid storms of change in the Arab world that are sweeping the region and their systems have come.
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