03/02/2010
Peninsula On-line
efore the end of 2009, I wished that 2010 would be different from previous years, despite knowing that this would be nothing more than a mirage. Societies and countries do not change based on unrealistic demands or wishes; change will only occur at the will of the people.
Freedom House’s publication of its annual report illustrates the depth of the crisis we face now and in the future. It indicates a dangerous decline in freedom for the fourth year in a row, the longest period since over 40 years. Further, of all the regions in the world, the Arab region accounts for the highest in political suffering and repression of civil liberties.
There is a regression in the number of Arab countries taking steps toward progress. Jordan is among the countries in decline due to a recently issued resolution dissolving the Jordanian Parliament, in addition to Bahrain and Yemen. Those three countries were classified as “not free”, compared to their prior classification as “partly free”. There was also noticeable regression in Morocco and Palestinian territories. Unfortunately, as mentioned by the Director of Freedom House, regression has a global impact, negatively affecting countries of economic or military power, as well as those previously showing signs of possible reform, and is accompanied by the persecution of political adversaries and independent journalists.
A common question is, “why do Arab states defy reform?”, or, “why doesn’t the seed of democracy find fertile ground in the Arabian desert to grow and thrive?” In answering this eternal question, a study was published last week in Washington, conducted by Larry Diamond, Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, in Democracy Review in January 2010. The study, entitled, “Why is There No Arab Democracy?”, cites reasons for the inaccuracy of mainstream explanations for the absence of Arab democracy, and calls for adopting a new explanation based on a combination of economic, political, and geo-strategic factors.
According to the study, when the wave of democratization began, the number of democracies in the world did not exceed 40 countries. During the early ‘90s, after the fall of the Soviet Union, the number reached approximately 76. In 2002, it increased to 118, and democratization became a trend in most countries with the exception of Arab states. Despite political and social changes, the Arab fortress managed to withstand the democratic wave that swept the world order since 1974, raising many to question the lack of political momentum supporting the democratization process in the Arab world, in geographic isolation, and why a single stable Arab democracy does not exist.
This is attributed to several factors.
The Economic factor: An absence of entrepreneurial spirit and the shrinking role of the private sector with the exception of businessmen associated with the ruling elite. The study warns that oil exporting countries may suffer from “Dutch Disease” as a result of abundant economic resources and the absence of an active private sector leading citizens to depend almost entirely on the state for various basic needs, thus leading to a proliferation of consumer lifestyles and production culture, and a decline in direct investment of oil revenues in services rather than production.
Political factor: The monopoly of political power is one of the most common features within the Arab region. In light of strong support from foreign powers for the continuation of authoritarian rule in protecting foreign political interests for political stability, authoritarian Arab regimes are enhanced in using customary tools of political repression, including the police force, intelligence services, and suppression of political opposition. Therefore, the majority of Arab countries are among the highest in the world in terms of security spending. However, the ruling Arab regimes do not exercise political repression on a permanent basis, they rely on several mechanisms simultaneously such as allowing opposition limited political representation and regular elections (even if they are unfair). These are authoritarian measures allowing political opposition to exercise actions for a temporary period only for the authoritarian regime to return. Political opposition in Arab countries face a complex dilemma; if they actively participate in elections and parliament, radical forces accuse them of legitimizing the authoritarian political system. If they are to refrain from political participation in protest, they are then accused of passivism. Not to mention the structural weaknesses within political opposition; the division of opposing fronts, uncompetitive legal framework, and unpopular support, with the exception of Islamic political forces.
The study implies that if oil prices fall, or alternative energy viably reduces oil prices, the authoritarian regimes of energy producing countries will be obliged to conclude a new social contract with their people based on sharing power and political representation, thereby ending elites’ monopoly of political power.
In the words of the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, “to reform the order of a thing, there are two solutions; either change the thing in itself, or disjoint it and re-install its parts in a different way”. The dilemma of democracy in the Arab world is that it is forcibly planted in the sands, rather than grown organically
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