The Peninsula Newspaper
Wednesday, 28 December 2011
The countdown for the end of the year wonders in the Arab world has begun. A year that started when a street vendor set himself on fire as he was not allowed to sell his vegetables in the popular market, and triggered protests which swept away dictatorships and totalitarian regimes that had governed for decades with iron and fire in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and perhaps Syria and other Arab countries that teetering on the way, and that will be coming in year 2012.
How does the world perceive the revolutions, which unexpectedly exploded in the Arab region, in a moment that neither the great powers, nor the international and Arab intelligence services, not even the internal and external think tanks centers of research and studies, could predict? Asharq Al Awsat newspaper published an excellent report in which it presented the views of a number of intellectuals in the United States and their comments on the Arab revolutions. These points of views are worthy of attention and it would be beneficial to communicate with their owners and to invite them to perform thorough studies and research on the current and future Arab situation.
One of them, Kai Bird, the author of the book “Crossing Mandelbaum Gate,” said in his comment that “For years, the Arab identity has been confined to defeat, injustice and poverty and disability. It has been suffering from a complex of inferiority that seemed to last eternally. But this year marks a revolutionary awakening in the Arab world and a rupture with the past.”
Henry Wacussian , a professor at the University of California, said that: “The Arab dictatorships collapsed after decades of repression, and Arabs and their sympathizers are now jumping of joy as if they could not believe that. The results of Arabs awakening will not be reflected on the region only, but also in the West. For this, Westerners must suspect and reconsider their fragile political alliances with the Arab rulers that were established for the benefit of their own economic interests and protected by these rulers.”
Juliet Jaodkanis, the writer of the magazine Nation, considered that: “Whatever the similarity between Arab events and the events of 1968 in Paris and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it would be too early to declare that freedom has prevailed and that it is going to spread in the rest of Arab countries. That’s because everything depends on how the West responds to this Arab awakening. Furthermore, compared with Eastern Europe in 1989, the Middle East in 2011 lacks the stability of external structures like NATO and the European Union. The transition in Eastern Europe after 1989 took longer time and was more expensive than what was expected. There is also the experience of Ukraine’s Orange revolution in 2004, which failed after a few years due to lack of efficiency, internal feuding and the corruption of the new rulers.”
Stephen Boredanoviom of the site Boredanoviom said that “If the Arab awakening fails, extremism will spread throughout the region because it will be difficult to return to the previous situation before the revolution. The genie is already out of the bottle! This is the second Arab awakening in modern history. The first was the Arab Revolt against the Ottoman Empire. It is true that the first awakening was against a foreign colonialism and the second is against internal rulers, but if we consider the long years spent by these rulers in power, it can be such as colonialism!
William Pfaff, author of Disaster of American foreign policy said: “Most of Americans accept the historical international obligations imposed on them, such as what happened in 1941, when they entered the Second World War against Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. Then it was the victory in the Cold War in 1989. It seemed as if the global order of the US has created a free and stable world for the first time! Then we faced the Arab attacks of September 11 against the US, and since then, we live in a global chaos. According to a number of people who believe that the awakening of Arab democracy will consolidate the democratic order in the world, the United States, the leader of democracy, has a chance to contribute in the achievement of that.”
Lawrence Bob, the diplomat and expert of the Arab world, wrote: “In 1938, George Antonius, an Egyptian-Lebanese writer and diplomat published a book called (The Arab Awakening) saying it was a result at that time of the spread of western ideas, and institutions such as the American University in Beirut, and the Faculty of Robert in Istanbul. But, in later years, this optimistic vision was replaced by the ideology of Arab nationalism. It is a contradictory mixture of Marxism and Arabism, represented in the slogan of the Baath Party: (one Arab nation, with an eternal message).
But the resounding defeat of Arabs in 1967 revealed that the Arab nationalism was a forged idea. Years later, types of political Islam filled the vacuum to face the penetration of the leftist trend in politics and armed forces, as happened in Egypt and Jordan. But when Islamists assassinated President Sadat in 1981, Islamic political parties were banned in the entire Arab world. Now after half a century of totalitarian rulers, and the assumption that the Arab peoples slept or died, it became clear that they didn’t die; they were asleep, but had just woken up.”
Mwangi Kimenyi, the director of the African Section of the Brookings Institution in Washington, highlighted the change, which was made by Arab- African countries with regard to other States in the same continent, to which they were similar since 40 years ago. He explained: “In 1970, the life expectancy in Tunisia was lower than that of the Congo. The number of children in schools was less than in Malawi. But, over the past four decades, the North African countries have become more developed than the rest of Africa. For this, New Democracy Movement in the Arab world is the result of the progress of development, and not the contrary as said the Human Development Reports of the United Nations.”
George Birnbaum, an American expert, estimated that “Young people in the Middle East had no hope for the future. Now they have a reason to look ahead. The challenges, however, are formidable. The Arab countries need to create 100 million jobs in the next five years. Democracy by itself won’t solve the problem; these Young people need decent jobs, advancement and better living standards.”
Joel Hurst, of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, criticised the policy of his country, which is dedicated to the defense of freedom and democracy, and ignores the repressive regimes of its Arab allies under the pretext of maintaining stability and providing cover for Israel in this hostile area. He added: “We are witnessing the most important moment in the Arab political history in our lives, but unfortunately, this news came as a mixed of blessing and curse for the United States. That’s because for a long time, our policy in the Arab world has been fraught with contradictions, and caused lack of credibility problem for the Arab street. “
Francine Kiefer, of the newspaper Christian Science Monitor, considered that, “even if the Arab uprising does not spread beyond countries in North Africa, it will not stop expanding, it is therefore imperative for the Western democratic states to provide humanitarian support and expertise to democracy in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, by, and even by revitalizing the economies of these countries so that they can absorb the increasing numbers of young Arabs.”
Welcome to the new year with all what it portends of expectations and surprises, because we are tired, but aged waiting for the change that have been subdued from our world for more than five decades and it is high time for change to invade every street and home and “zenga”, from the Ocean to the Gulf.
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